Not just the best technical analyst but a ‘Market Guru’ is what will do justice while describing Mr. Kiran Jadhav. An author, commentator, trainer and a SEBI Registered Research Analyst, he masters it all. His journey has come up overpowering all the troughs and crests of the financial market and today he holds the power of predicting future deviations in the stock market, with utmost ease and confidence. Started his own company – Kiran Jadhav and Associates in 1992 and there has been no looking back for him since then. Being a professional market analyst, he has proved his expertise time and again over the last two decades. Bull rallies of 1991-1992, 1999-2000, 2003-2007, and the recent 2009, 2012, and 2014 are all a part of his rich experience in the field. His several firsts in the market include – predicting the start of the Bull Run in 2003 and 2009, predicting the Sensex target of 8000 in the bear phase of 2008, altering various theories on “Technical Analysis” to suit the Indian market conditions and a long list of things.
Currently, his opinion is geared towards about the intensity of COVID-19 and how it has impacted every sector and the world economy at large. He shared his guru mantra of success, tips for investors and various sources to gather information about the stock market. He also discusses his own journey and how his company is helping out young individuals of the nation to learn and grow as he considers that technical analysis should be known and taught to everyone, no matter what his educational background is. His company provides portfolio management, software, consultancies, and various stock market training that they deal with.
Mr. Kiran, where is your company based out? Which areas are you currently covering under your training currently?
Having its headquarters in Pune, our company has various branches all over India including Gujarat, Jalgaon, Kerala, Mumbai, Nagpur, and Kolkata.
Till now, we have selected cities like Delhi, Pune, Bombay, Nagpur, Kolkata, Banglore but with this COVID situation, traveling has been no more a possibility now. So, we are equipping ourselves for the online teaching modules, which is something that we never liked. One to one meetings and interactions are far better than what happens over a webinar, but these circumstances have kept us bound into this zone.
As you have more than 28 years of experience in the stock market, what is your assessment of the COVID-19 situation? Did you see anything similar in your investing journey?
Not really, but yes there were disasters like the Kargil War of 1998-99, then after that was the Y2K problem, thereafter the great recession of 2008 and the financial crisis. So, every fall has its own features but something that comes up for the first time is always very difficult even after two decades of experience. With every fall, the industry has come up with new and unique methodologies to flourish again. But, with this COVID situation, no one could imagine the intensity and impact of it, which is what makes it difficult for all of us to digest.
Being technical analysts, when we look and follow the charts, we aren’t very sure about the market as much as we would have liked to. If we talk about the year 2008, it was a gradual fall and because of which, there were new price patterns and we could actually make a lot of money in and after the downfall. But, this time through the fall was so intense in the first place, that we could not go short, we just moved down 4-5 positions and ran out of cash. Although the experience is unique, the money made in this fall is much lesser than what we made in our other falls.
The entire country has been in lockdown for more than two months now, all the businesses are shut and quarter one seems to completely wash out for most of the companies. So, what are your views on its impact on various sectors? Which sector according to you will be most and least affected?
Everyone knows that the economy has come to a standstill. But, is it only our economy that has come to a standstill? The answer is obviously no. It’s across the globe. So, it is a new normal now that the average economy of the world was moving at around 4%, has come down now to a level of 1% now. But that has happened across the globe and if it would have been only our country, it would have made a huge impact. So, everyone has come down to a certain percent downside but brilliant brains will start working on how to recover. I don’t see this as a big long-term issue, it could just move another 6-8 months.
I am not saying that the numbers will go up immediately but yes eventually.Everyone knows that the economy has come to a standstill. But, is it only our economy that has come to a standstill? The answer is obviously no. It’s across the globe. So, it is a new normal now that the average economy of the world was moving at around 4%, has come down now to a level of 1% now. But that has happened across the globe and if it would have been only our country, it would have made a huge impact. So, everyone has come down to a certain percent downside but brilliant brains will start working on how to recover. I don’t see this as a big long-term issue, it could just move another 6-8 months. I am not saying that the numbers will go up immediately but yes eventually.
The companies that will benefit faster will be – FMCG, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, fertilizers, and of course telecommunications with a greater margin because everyone and everything is running with the use of data currently. On the other hand, companies like – infrastructure, automobiles, banking will surely take more time to kick-start because these are the companies that require more human power. They will face a back seat initially but will start picking up in the long run.
After this long shutdown, do you think that we would face a recession that would be as bad or even worse than the recession of 2008? How do you think the economy will recover and be reshaped ?
Today’s situation and that of 2008 are both completely different. 2008 was a scam And in that case, the recovery is slow and a lot of time is required in the healing process. But, here COVID is a global problem and the new norm will make sure that we bounce back faster. I am pretty positive as a human being so I believe that this thing can in no circumstance overpower humanity at large. We tend to accumulate things in times like these, but why would we do so if we thought that the world is coming to an end. So, I just believe that we would bounce back stronger and better, like every other big disaster we have faced in the past. There are intelligent brains all over the world that will help to get the economy back on track. I also believe and expect a new high to be registered in the world after a period of 6-9 months.
And, I don’t think that the economy will be reshaped. It will be a U-shaped recovery and not a V-shaped recovery. Just like the first quarter, the market will be bad in the next 3 months also. I don’t see any growth before then. The only thing that we suggest is accumulating at every dip possible.
What should investors do in today’s situation – sell, hold onto the stocks, add money, or invest money in gold?
For the market as of now, you need to hold and re-visit your portfolio first. Pull out the weeds and put in the good crops which will give you a higher yield. After re-aligning the portfolio, you need to invest and add more in the sectors that I have been talking through. There have been great stocks even in this lockdown that have registered about 60-80% hike, so these are the stocks that will no longer be affected by COVID. So, looking at these will be a great idea. What I suggest is to pick up 20-30 stocks that are insulated by COVID, when SIP and every other stock is accumulating them.
Talking about gold, I don’t see it moving up very high. Once this COVID thing stabilizes, gold will also cool off. The range for gold will be 48-50,000 on the higher side to 36-37,000 on the lower side. That should be the broad range. According to me, the coming years will be the time when gold under-performs, as there have already been times when it has over-performed.
Please recommend 2-3 stocks that our readers should invest in, keeping in mind the current situation?
Being a SEBI registered stock analyst, I cannot be stock specific. The sectors that I can recommend are – consumption, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, fertilizers, telecom, and a little bit of banking with a clear perspective. There are some good banks with very cheap valuations right now because of this panic situation. Nothing can work without finance so they have to be in the reckoning. So, it’s a good time when everyone is fearful and you become fearless and make the most out of it.
Please share more information on more technical analysis of why you suggest to go to the FMCG, pharma, and chemical?
These stocks have not swollen relatively as compared to NIFTY or other indices, which shows demand in these areas. So, automatically – “what is good in the bad times will be the best in the good times.” Hence, we see positive diversions here technically and all the counters that show positive diversions are the ones that you should go ahead and buy.
For banking, you should look at private banks only. The first four private banks are the banks that you should buy.
What should investors do to make their portfolio COVID-proof? Can you share the fund allocation strategy for the next year?
As I already discussed, these five sectors are COVID safe. First is consumption, FMCG will be consumed, hence sales will be there. Second, being Pharma is obviously what is looked at for survival in times of stress and disasters. Thirdly, chemicals will do well because COVID came from China, so nothing will be happening here and Chemicals will now be exported from India. Fourth is fertilizers because ours was a farm economy and people will be looking back at growing more crops on a small scale. The fifth is banking because finance is the backbone of everything, so banking will revive in a short period of time.
In the last couple of years, we have seen a few good IPOs hitting the market. So, what are your views on the same for 2020?
I don’t think that any good IPOs will be coming in this year. But, I am pretty sure that next year at this time, we will see good enthusiasm and I expect a new high in the next 12 months. IPOs will be coming up again after that.
Can you recommend some of the books that they can read and gain knowledge and information about the stock market and the share market?
There are two ways of looking at the share market- there is technical analysis and the other is fundamental analysis. Me, being the part of the first belief in the science of demand and supply. Investors should start from basics and then go higher is what I suggest. Not a particular book, but you need to collect bits and pieces from here and there. In this digital era, the Internet can effectively be used to gather information.
Being a market guru, what’s your piece of advice for people who want to become like you.
You have to be consistent throughout. One bad day should not let you quit and go back. Think about the long term goal and keep learning always. Even 28 years for me has been less for learning, so keep that process going on forever. Never commit the same mistake again and keep the teachings of all your mistakes in mind. Take the emotional support of your closed ones and family and come out stronger and better, defeating the bad days. Don’t give up easily as – “nothing big comes easy.”
The vision and mission of the country’s best stock broker, Mr. Kiran Jhadav – to lead every Indian towards financial security and educating individuals on wealth creation by empowering them with precise advice, is 100% worth appreciating. He is a man of achievements who rightly believes in the power of optimism, courage and clarity has portrayed all of this through his company’s logo as well.
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|Issuer Company||Exchange||Issue Open|
|Yes Bank Ltd FPO||BSE, NSE||Jul 15, 2020|
|Rossari Biotech Ltd IPO||BSE, NSE||Jul 13, 2020|
|Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) Rights Issue||BSE, NSE|
|Antony Waste Handling Cell Ltd IPO||BSE, NSE||Mar 4, 2020|
|SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd IPO||BSE, NSE||Mar 2, 2020|
|ITI Ltd FPO||BSE, NSE||Jan 24, 2020|
|Prince Pipes and Fittings Ltd IPO||BSE, NSE||Dec 18, 2019|
|Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Ltd IPO||BSE, NSE||Dec 2, 2019|
|CSB Bank Limited IPO||BSE, NSE||Nov 22, 2019|
|IRCTC Limited IPO||BSE, NSE||Sep 30, 2019|
|Issuer Company||Exchange||Issue Open|
|Billwin Industries Ltd IPO||BSE SME|
|Nirmitee Robotics India Ltd IPO||BSE SME||Mar 31, 2020|
|DJ Mediaprint & Logistics Ltd IPO||BSE SME||Mar 26, 2020|
|Laxmi Goldorna House Ltd IPO||NSE Emerge||Mar 20, 2020|
|Cospower Engineering Ltd IPO||BSE SME||Mar 17, 2020|
|RO Jewels Ltd IPO||BSE SME||Mar 12, 2020|
|SM Auto Stamping Ltd IPO||BSE SME||Mar 3, 2020|
|ICL Organic Dairy Products Ltd IPO||BSE SME||Jan 31, 2020|
|Chandra Bhagat Pharma Ltd IPO||BSE SME||Jan 31, 2020|
|Tranway Technologies Ltd IPO||BSE SME||Jan 27, 2020|